Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 Furnace Creek 508 Pacing and Odds

Joe Friel responded that 55-60 was a decent strategy for something like the 508, but he was clear he did not know the ins and outs of the race. I contacted another 24 hour Mtn. Biking coach online who advised 60% of so is a good pace. Just read the 2009 blog entry of American Krestel who handled the crazy winds well that year. He talks of doing the "Treatment" which for him was holding 280 watts or so all day. I like that approach, but for me my target will be quite a bit lower, especially on the flats. Based on what I read there, I would have to guess this guy is one of the favorites for the win. He was not that far behind Emde and Ragsdale in 09 and since they are not riding, he rises up. Betting a battle between him and Rock Rabbit is in the cards as that guy is smoking this year based on the the Terrible Two first place I witnessed and some sick power output I see on Strava.  Its an open race this year with only one top 10 from last year in the race.   Could be a dark horse out there, but I will give a shot with admittedly poor predicting skills:

508 Predictions for Podium

  •  Rock Rabbit: 3 to 1: 1st in Terrible Two, stomach issues finally solved 
  •  American Kestrel: 3.5 to 1: 3rd in 2009. Enuff Said 
  •  Holstein: 4 to 1: Won Hoodoo Voyager. Previous low 30's finish. 
  •  Escape Goat: 20 to 1: 12 hour and change Mulholland Double. Could be breakthrough race 
  •  Honey Badger: 25 to 1:  Sub 13 Hour Devil Mountain Double is Nice...
  •  Tapir: 200 to 1: Been drinking bee pollen. Feel psychic breakthrough coming any day.

5 comments:

Mike Berry said...

Drew Peterson aka Turkey Vulture to win...

scud said...

Turkey Vulture soars!

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CB said...

You nailed it!! Rock Rabbit is the WINNER. Way to go Adam.

Chris O'Keefe said...

I should have bet house. Even picked escapegoat!